Ontario’s new COVID-19 outbreak management plan for schools allows for the possibility that fully vaccinated, asymptomatic pupils and staff could remain at school even in the face of multiple contacts with positive cases in the school setting.

The new guidance released Wednesday opens up possibilities to continue in-person learning that were not possible last school year, when virtually no staff or students were eligible for vaccination until the end of the year.

The 27-page document states that “In cohorts with a known high proportion of immunized individuals (i.e., immunization information is available), immediate dismissal of the entire cohort may not be necessary.”

“Dismissal of a smaller number of specific contacts who are not fully immunized or previously positive may be sufficient.”

But the plan hinges on everyone’s COVID-19 vaccination status being publicly disclosed, and no one is legally required to disclose their status to school boards or any other domestic authority at this time.

Without vaccination status information, the approach to dealing with COVID-19 cases and outbreaks in schools appears to be largely the same as last year.

“PHUs may consider dismissal of the entire cohort, regardless of immunization status,” the guide states about groups where little or no information about vaccination status is known.

Ontario’s Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. Kieran Moore said rules around COVID-19 in schools would not put up “barriers” to activities for unvaccinated students, but he also said in an earlier news conference that vaccinated pupils would follow a different set of rules in the event of an outbreak.

People for Education Director Annie Kidder told CP24 on Wednesday she believes that it is highly likely vaccination will be made mandatory for at least some in the education sector.

“I think it’s inevitable that they’re going to be mandatory for staff and students. And as you said there’s already immunization is mandatory for students for all sorts of things, measles, mumps, rubella whooping cough, diphtheria, with exemptions where needed, and I think it’s inevitable that it’s going to come,” she said.

“But what we need to make sure of is that we don’t just throw in the policy without having brought everybody together, so everybody at the table; directors of education, principals, teachers, support staff student organizations, parent organizations, all of the health experts and people from the Ministry of Education and the Ministry of Health to work out all the kinks first.”

The language in the new plan mirrors the guidance given to the general public, where fully-vaccinated asymptomatic close contacts of cases in any other setting will not need to self-isolate, and instead self-monitor for any symptoms.

Conspicuously absent from the province’s new COVID-19 school safety plan released last week were any changes or references to its outbreak management plan.

Unvaccinated staff and students considered high-risk close contacts will need to complete a 10 day period of self isolation with up to two PCR tests completed during that time, and remain home for that duration regardless of their most recent test result.

The guidance says siblings of a confirmed case do not need to stay home from school so long as they do not show symptoms consistent with COVID-19, which can include dry cough, sustained fever, nausea, diarrhea, shortness of breath, sore throat or headache.

A spokesperson for Minister of Health Christine Elliott told CTV News Toronto the school plan can be augmented or changed by local chief medical officers of health and may be amended by the province if new developments arise.

“(Public Health Units) may also implement additional measures that are not outlined in this guidance, based on local circumstances and/or PHU investigation and risk assessment,” Alexandra Hilkene said.

“The Chief Medical Officer of Health and health experts will continue to review data and provide advice to the government on the appropriate and effective measures that are needed to protect the health and safety of Ontarians and keep our kids in the classroom.”

Toronto Public Health (TPH) said it is revising its COVID-19 guidance for schools and child care centres in light of the provincial update.

“TPH plans to follow this guidance, consistent with routine case and contact management in the community, where a person who is vaccinated does not need to self-isolate if they do not have symptoms and are exposed to someone with COVID-19,” said Dr. Vinita Dubey, Toronto’s associate medical officer of health.

New benchmark for when to initiate mass testing

The new plan suggests for local public health units when to make PCR testing available to all staff and students.

It says school-wide testing should initiate when two or more cohorts of a schools have been sent home due to COVID-19 cases, there are multiple confirmed cases in a school where the source cannot be determined, or five per cent or more students and staff in a school have tested positive recently.

Last year, local public health units initiated mass testing in some instances where no more than two per cent of regular occupants of a school building had tested positive.

Criteria tightened for shutting down entire schools

It appears the Ministry of Education does not want to shut down schools due to COVID-19 cases except in extreme circumstances, especially among schools with vaccinated students.

“It is anticipated that the likelihood of whole school dismissal will be exceptionally low in schools with high immunization coverage among students.

But in cases where more than one cohort of children sees infections, mass testing for the whole school has already been ordered, and contact tracing still cannot trace the sources of all infections but transmission inside the school is suspected, the guidance indicates the school should be shut down entirely for 14 days.