New modelling released Wednesday by Ontario’s COVID-19 science advisory table says more than 85 per cent of the eligible population needs to be vaccinated to avoid a lockdown this fall due to the highly contagious delta variant.

The table said Ontarians also need to reduce contacts to about 70 per cent of pre-pandemic levels until vaccination levels are high enough to protect the population. To reduce contacts, the table recommends:

• Reducing indoor density, maintaining physical distancing, limiting large gatherings.
• Continuing indoor mask policies and working from home.
• Implementing policies that accelerate vaccination (e.g. certificates, mandates, outreach).

The table confirmed that Ontario is in the fourth wave of the pandemic and it said its modelling predicts the resulting spike in cases will be “substantial.”

“Vaccination offers substantial protection against severe health outcomes. We do not expect to see the same proportion of severely ill cases in the vaccinated. Among the unvaccinated, we do expect to see a rapid increase in the number of seriously ill people needing hospital care as workplaces and education re-open in September,” the table said.

“The fourth wave will affect all age groups with the potential to exceed ICU capacity.”

The table said if Ontario cannot reduce transmission and accelerate vaccination, the number of people in intensive care units suffering from COVID-19 could exceed that of the third wave by